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The Fourth Industrial Revolution, by Prof Klaus Schwab
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Ubiquitous, mobile supercomputing. Artificially-intelligent robots. Self-driving cars. Neuro-technological brain enhancements. Genetic editing. The evidence of dramatic change is all around us and it's happening at exponential speed. Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, has been at the centre of global affairs for over four decades. He is convinced that the period of change we are living through is more significant, and the ramifications of the latest technological revolution more profound than any prior period of human history. He has dubbed this era the fourth industrial revolution. Crowdsourcing ideas, insights and wisdom from the World Economic Forum's global network of business, government, civil society and youth leaders, this book looks deeply at the future that is unfolding today and how we might take collective responsibility to ensure it is a positive one for all of us.
- Sales Rank: #8006 in Books
- Published on: 2016-01-12
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 7.60" h x .45" w x 5.00" l,
- Binding: Paperback
- 198 pages
About the Author
Professor Klaus Schwab is the Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, the International Organization for Public Private Cooperation headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland. Schwab uniquely combines the experience of being an academic, an entrepreneur and a statesman. He has been at the centre of global affairs for over 45 years. The World Economic Forum is a comprehensive and integrated platform for leaders of all stakeholder groups from around the world – business, government and civil society – to come together in a shared commitment to improve the state of the world. The Forum is independent and impartial. Its activities are shaped by a unique institutional culture founded on stakeholder theory, a concept which Schwab pioneered in 1971 and which asserts that organizations are accountable to all parts of society.
Most helpful customer reviews
66 of 74 people found the following review helpful.
But no decision-maker in our midst is going to be left any better equipped to face that future as a result of ...
By James Murphy
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is really very badly misconceived. And with all respect for Dr. Schwab’s achievements with the World Economic Forum over the years, let’s try to expose below why, sadly, this is so.
As he says, there is a much different future coming for all of us, businesses and families alike. But no decision-maker in our midst is going to be left any better equipped to face that future as a result of reading the analyses and prescriptions - or really the lack of both - in this story. In fact, the Fourth Industrial Revolution may well have the impact of diverting energy away from all that ought to be thought and done about our collective socio-economic tomorrow.
Now, in a perfectly serviceable (if not awfully readable) way, one is here walked through the list of all the modern and emerging techno-excitements : AI, robotics, wearable computers, blockchain, Big Data, clouds, synthetic biology, etc, etc. But the speech soon becomes a sermon, a dirge of angst about what all the inventiveness of the modern world is doing to good human order. Like too many pastors / preachers before him, Dr. Schwab sees society’s very own 3D-printed, hell-bound handcart waiting in the hard-drive. Hear the incantation start:
“…the new technology revolution which entails nothing less than a transformation of humankind”.
“Let us together shape a future what works for all by putting people first…”.
“We are all in this together and risk being unable to tackle the challenges of the fourth industrial revolution and reap the benefits…unless we collectively develop a sense of shared purpose”.
“It is our responsibility to ensure that we establish a set of common values to drive policy choices…”.
For like a Billy Graham of the cyber-age, he typically has a vision of the confusions, destructions and pathologies lurking in every corner. Viz:
“Our brain, engaged by all the digital instruments that connect us on a 24-hour basis, risks becoming a perpetual-motion machine that puts (sic) in an unremitting frenzy…
…Decision-makers from all parts of global society seem to be in a state of ever-increasing exhaustion, so deluged by multiple competing demands that they turn from frustration to resignation and despair”.
“…individuals, civil society groups, social movements and local communities feel increasingly excluded from meaningful participation in traditional decision-making processes…”.
When expert-authors take this tone, one can always tell that precious little evidence in support of any of these claims will be forthcoming. And, so it is the case here. On tiptoe in the pulpit, all one will ever see is the coast of dystopia, un-erodibly nearby.
And oh, clichés sweep like whingeing valkyries through the fields of this, well, lightly proofed prose. Let’s not linger on too many examples. Let’s just mention : “Innovation is a complex, social process and not one we should take for granted”. Or : “Academic institutions are often regarded as one of the foremost places to pursue forward-thinking ideas”. Finally : “Companies are no longer able to shirk accountability for poor performance. Brand equity is a prize hard won and easily lost”. Nobody, no matter how distinguished, who writes like this is thinking in a straight line anymore - and certainly not in a creatively curvy one. This is pulp non-fiction.
Meanwhile, staff in the better trends agencies and forecasting outfits are taught to use language to, as it were, force them to make intellectual decisions. No junior analysis-maker is every allowed to drive a story into the dead-air signposted by the phrase : "It remains to be seen" or "further research is required". Both such (present here) are really mindless truisms and invariably represent a shirking of the insight-supplier’s responsibility : to actually reveal something new and important and to guide the eyes of the reader to the best available truths. It is a betrayal of the Enlightenment itself to talk of "anecdotal evidence" (here also) when power evidence is available - but often has to be sweatily sifted so that conclusions might, however gingerly, be reached. More, just how often should readers be told about a "paradigm shift" (here) and an "inflection point" (here) in one book, a book which offers itself as a guide to the transformations ahead while using the thought-substituting jargons of the past?
There should be little doubt now that a revolution is already being detonated inside global labour and career markets. And Dr. Schwab’s emphasis on this very theme is absolutely correct. But the elimination of income-bearing professions - from Davos to Delhi to Denver - needs urgent analysis of a quality that can lead to practical advice for companies and governments. How actually to preserve lifelong income flows for consumer-citizens? How to adjust universities to cope in utterly radical ways with adults who will, across their lives, need three degrees in order to give themselves a fighting chance of sustainable revenue (as their old skills die faster than species)? How specifically should the language of recruitment now change so that employers and college-leavers alike can share a coherent understanding of how long job contracts (and the commitments they imply) can be expected to last? A negative kind of rapture is busy engulfing the entire culture of career as we have always known it in the West - and we need precision and purpose in the answers we offer. This is no time to waffle or simper or insouciantly understate the scale of the problem on the table. Or write things like:
“We should take the opportunity of a transforming economy to redesign labour policies and business practices to ensure that both men and women are empowered to their full extent”. Or:
“We can reasonably assume that demand will increase for skills that enable workers to design, build and work alongside technological systems”.
This is language which melts into air, into thin air. Well-meaning but un-engaged and un-engaging. Lofty, toothless, trite.
And do we think that this muzak of lazy exhortation, fond hoping and nice-people ethics are really going to turn heads towards a new and sharper realisation of the shape of things to come - the heads of Wall Street, the Government of France, Silicon Valley, the Ivy League, the European Central Bank, the US Administration, the Fortune 500, entrepreneurs everywhere…. all those who have to make big decisions about technologies and jobs, investments and retrenchments, spending priorities and new agenda selections? Not a chance.
Dr. Schwab writes a book called The Fourth Industrial Revolution, presumably with such leadership audiences in view, the people who will (here we all presumably agree) have big decisions to take about the future of workforces and of the general prosperity on which we all depend. As a summary of the techno-driven changes to come, the book is indeed serviceable. But he must surely have had a higher ambition than that. In the complexity-rapids of the fourth revolution, we do indeed need some pretty rugged intellectual helmsmanship. This book is not close to being on point.
44 of 50 people found the following review helpful.
An important point of departure for a critical debate.
By Sean Cleary
This is a first-rate and timely overview of the most extensive and profound transformation of the technological landscape in more than two centuries since the [first] Industrial Revolution. This transformation – the product of sustained research and development at an unprecedented scale over several decades, in congruent and conflating info-, bio-, nano-, neuro- and cogno-technologies, is already disrupting social structures, business models, the conduct of warfare, and the workings of both democratic and authoritarian polities around the world.
As the technologies emerging from these development pipelines mature, and are combined in both foreseeable and presently unpredictable ways, the scale of the disruption will accelerate and expand, with consequences we cannot easily foresee. Those who care about the future must be better prepared.
Professor Schwab records three aims: to raise awareness of the scale, speed and impact of the revolution; to outline core issues and highlight possible responses, and to provide a platform for public-private partnerships to address challenges and unlock opportunities. He and his team, drawing on the extraordinary knowledge resources of the communities of the World Economic Forum, have achieved these goals, combining the structural frame of physical, digital and biological drivers, with a brief discussion of inflection points, and consideration of the impacts of the emerging technologies on individuals, the economy, business, society, national polities and international security.
The “Deep Shift” appendix, listing the present state and potential [r]evolution of 23 transformative technologies, is especially useful for those trawling for new insights. No individual can know what is underway, and capable of realization, in all these areas. Those seeking further insights can usefully consult Metascan 3, a study on emerging technologies published in September 2013 by Policy Horizons Canada, the Canadian Government’s impressive foresight group.
Professor Schwab’s book provides a useful platform for a vitally important discussion. He records two main concerns: Insufficient understanding at leadership level of the nature of the impending transformation, given “the need to rethink our economic, social and political systems”; and the absence of a coherent narrative that outlines the opportunities and the challenges. Significantly, he observes that “the requisite institutional framework to govern the diffusion of innovation and mitigate the disruption, is inadequate [or]…absent….”
This point has been made several times in past years. In “Our Final Century?” in 2003, Lord Rees of Ludlow said trenchantly: "I think the odds are no better than 50/50 that our present civilisation will survive…the (21st) century." He offered two reasons: our “tinkering with deep fundamentals we do not fully understand …in many fields of scientific research, notably biology and particle physics”; and the force multiplier effect in many technologies that gives malign small groups and individuals, the power to wreak havoc. Lord Rees warned of the risk of catastrophe from the runaway effects of new technology, uncontrolled scientific research, terrorist violence, or destruction of the biosphere, and suggested that only human expansion beyond the earth would minimise these risks. Warning of the need for reflection and preparation, Jared Diamond suggested in “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed” (2005) that societal collapses over millennia had been due to at least one of four causes: Failure to anticipate an existential problem; failure to recognise one once it had arisen; failure to act appropriately once it had been recognised; or failure of the society’s efforts to solve it.
It is thus clear that we need to understand better what we are doing, and to act prudently in incentivising and regulating innovation. But that is easier said than done! All existing technologies, and those that emerge, are, or become, embedded in our social, economic and political systems, and produce both expected and unexpected social, cultural, economic and political outcomes. Certain innovations are inevitably endorsed over others, and as technological change is dynamic and non-linear, they drive new, often unexpected, trajectories. The governance of technology is an aspect of social policy - an effort to balance economic, political and social welfare - but even as we seek to guide, incentivise and constrain technological change, our technologies guide and reshape our sense of what policy should, and can, be. As JM Culkin said of Marshall McLuhan’s insight nearly fifty years ago: “We shape our tools, and thereafter our tools shape us.”
The sheer scale of the technological systems with huge social implications that are now emerging from research pipelines, amplifies this challenge. The regulatory requirements for innovations in nanotechnology, neurotechnology and cognotechnology, and interfaces between them that cross the frontiers of transhumanism, are uncertain in ethical terms, untested in practice, and quite different to those we have used to incentivise breakthroughs in informatics and the first round of bio-technologies. Technology convergence poses moral and policy dilemmas in fields from health regulation to military ethics. Balancing the ethical and economic considerations of neurocognitive and physical enhancement will be particularly challenging, given the risk of exacerbating social divides and political tensions by augmenting the capacity and opportunities of the children of those who can pay.
Professor Schwab, a “pragmatic optimist”, suggests that:
“The more we think about how to harness the technology revolution, the more we will examine ourselves and the underlying social models that these technologies embody and enable, and the more we will have an opportunity to shape the revolution in a manner that improves the state of the world.”
That thought and discussion will afford us a better opportunity, is unquestionably true, albeit that collective reflection may not enable success. Technology is on the verge of redefining what it means to be human, raising profound ontological and epistemological questions, and potentially redefining principles of moral philosophy. To date, since Periclean Athens, democratic political systems, the doctrine of universal human rights, and all of public international law have stood on the foundation of a lex naturalis, comprising binding rules of moral behaviour said to derive from human nature, and to be applicable to all. Even so, the quality of policy discourse on gun control and abortion in the U.S., state obligations in the face of forced migration in Europe, and collective responsibility for human misfortune and the health of the biosphere around the world, is not encouraging. There is no reason to believe that reflection and discussion will fare better when technology further disrupts social, economic and political structures.
The third challenge to “shaping the revolution” flows from the dynamic interactions between the economic, technological, social and political elements that comprise the complex adaptive system of human society in the biosphere. For analytical purposes it is helpful to group elements in economic, social, legal, political, and technological categories, but these separate constructs provide only modest insights into how humans behave individually and collectively, and scarcely any into the workings of the system. Complex systems are defined by many strongly interdependent variables that interact in non-linear ways, making attribution of causes and effects very difficult; a non-Gaussian distribution of outputs; chaotic behaviour, defined by extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, fractal geometry, and self-organizing criticality; and multiple (meta)stable states, where a small change in the prevailing conditions may precipitate a major change in the system.
The technological transformation now underway is the product of interactions between social values, political paradigms, economic opportunities, and regulatory incentives, in addition to research and development, and its [r]evolution will impact all other elements of the system. Rapid advances in information technology have equipped economic actors with new tools to identify and pursue economic opportunities – analysing economic trends and market opportunities, creating new businesses with low barriers to entry, transferring financial assets, and collaborating with widely-dispersed partners. They have also disintermediated national political parties, progressively increased economic returns to capital and technology ownership, and reduced those to labour, widening economic disparity in almost all advanced economies, and weakening social cohesion. These political and social consequences were not planned, but they are no less real for that.
Meanwhile all other elements are acting on one another, and on the system: The interface between policies required to sustain a global economic recovery, and current and potential future geopolitical tensions, produces systemic uncertainty that is more unsettling than the interactions within the global economic system, or the geopolitical dynamics of any region, on their own. The same is true at the interface between population growth, urbanization, higher consumption and climate change. Each of these elements influences patterns of economic growth or disruption, and gives rise to circumstances promoting social harmony, or tensions destructive of social capital. In conditions of normative uncertainty, in which the rules of the global game are poorly defined, and prudent collective action is difficult to achieve, these interfaces can be highly disruptive.
We may be better able to “shape the revolution” to improve humanity’s lot if we recognise our cognitive limitations, and plan accordingly. The complexity of the adaptive ecosystem in which humanity is embedded, and the economic and social systems that we have created in recent decades, greatly exceed our capacity to understand, model, and plan their workings. The profound asymmetry between the scale and depth of an integrated global economy, the absence of a commensurate, inclusive community, and the defective state of the global polity, invites continuous stress. This is increasingly apparent in the workings of most national societies and global companies.
We shall be better able to manage the complex interfaces between the economy, society, technology and polity if we can restore symmetry of scale between them. The benefits of “economies of scale” are often offset, and even exceeded, by the costs of complexity. This is part of the reason why increases in productivity seem so modest. We need to find the scales at which collaboration, planning and regulation can best be managed for each issue, and the measures of advancement or decline that are properly applicable to each.
Professor Schwab’s timely book effectively highlights a most important part of this challenge, and ought to prompt robust discussion at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in 2016 and beyond. It should be read with care by all with an interest in the future of humanity.
Seán Cleary, Executive Vice-Chair, FutureWorld Foundation
19 of 21 people found the following review helpful.
A Revolution with Benefits for All. A Buddhist Perspective
By laurens van den muyzenberg
This book is very interesting from especially three points of view. First, the author presents a complete catalogue of all the changes that have started that will change society. Second for each change he points out the potential benefit and dangers that are of equal magnitude. Third, he poses the questions that need to be answered to avoid disasters, and instead, gain benefits. At the end of the book he recommends how to find the right answers and implement them.
You will find many developments in different categories, biological, digitalization, employment, consumers, government, international security, identity, inequality morality, human connections and more
Klaus Schwab is uniquely qualified to write such as book. He founded in 1971 the World Economic Forum that organizes the yearly Davos conference where leaders from companies, governments and scientists meet in Davos. In between he meets with influential leaders from all over the world and organizes other conferences and directs research projects about for example competitiveness.
An interesting and typical example, unknown to me, is the establishment of OpenAI in 2015 with the goal to "advance digital intelligence (including artificial intelligence) in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return.” Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, Solar City and Space X and a net worth of 12 billion is one of the founders. Google, Apple and IBM, also support this project. $1 billion has already been secured to finance the development. Artificial intelligence is a good example of a development with the potential to deliver disaster and great benefit. It is a development that cannot be stopped.
In most cases the author does not recommend what should be done. Instead he formulates questions that need to be answered which can be frustrating. However it is the right way as it is extremely difficult to determine what the right answer should be, requiring a great amount of effort.
The author refers to all these changes together as the “fourth industrial revolution”; an alternative would have been “a societal revolution”.
At the end of the book the author recommends an interesting way in how to develop answers that in some respects are similar to the Buddhist way of thinking.
He recommends at the end of the book to develop answers using four intelligences. First, "contextual Intelligence" defined as "the ability and willingness to anticipate emerging trends and connect the dots." In Buddhism this is similar to "Dependent Origination" referring of a stream of thinking and events distinguishing between ideas and the conditions for ideas to flourish
Second, with "heart", referring to "emotional intelligence, self-awareness, self-regulation, motivation empathy and social skills." In Buddhism the word “heart” is also used, with the emphasis on training the mind, staying calm under all circumstances, self confidence, self-discipline, compassion and reducing the influence of self-centeredness, anger, hatred, the so called disturbing emotions.
Third, "inspired intelligence - soul" refers to the continuous search for meaning and purpose, a focus of common purpose. In Buddhism this is referred as the "Right View" or as a "holistic view” that considers all causes and effects that interacted in the past and will in the future. The right view means one knows what one can and should do that is of benefit to self and others.
The fourth "Body, physical intelligence," refers to keeping the body in good shape and “Remain calm under pressure”. In Buddhism remaining calm is heart and mind. Buddha concluded that in this case the "middle way" was the right path that is no extreme austerity and no eating more than necessary for good health.
The author recommends that only diverse groups that understand interconnectedness and are open-minded using these four intelligences will be able to develop answers to the questions the author has raised. In Buddhism there is a strong emphasis on the merit of curiosity and seeing the reality, the way things really are. There is no such emphasis on "group think" which is an addition, and a good idea.
A book is well worth to read.
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